NFC West 2026 Season Preview – A Data-Driven Look
The NFC West projects as the conference’s strongest division. Seattle and the Los Angeles Rams are forecast to win 14 and 13 games, San Francisco projects to reach double digits, and Arizona is the only team outside the playoff picture.
This preview uses adjusted offense, defense, and power ratings from 2021 through 2025 to measure the division’s growing separation.
Division Overview (2021–2025)
Seattle made the NFL’s largest leap in 2025 and finished with the league’s best power rating. The Rams paired the league’s top adjusted offense with an above-average defense. San Francisco rebounded on both sides of the ball, while Arizona regressed after briefly reaching average in 2024.
Defensive Trends
Seattle led the NFL at +7.024 in 2025. The Rams (+2.588) and San Francisco (+1.125) also finished above average, while Arizona dropped to -4.221.
Offensive Trends
The Rams led the league at +7.849, with Seattle close behind at +6.497. San Francisco remained positive at +2.279, while Arizona fell to -1.909.
Power Ratings
Seattle’s 106.633 was the NFL’s best 2025 rating. The Rams ranked second at 104.343, San Francisco finished sixth at 103.130, and Arizona trailed far behind at 97.013.
Team-by-Team Data Analysis
Seattle Seahawks
Five-Year Offensive Trend: +0.231 → +2.161 → -1.410 → -0.512 → +6.497
Five-Year Defensive Trend: +1.147 → -3.004 → -1.238 → +1.333 → +7.024
2025 Rating: 106.633
Seattle improved dramatically on both sides of the ball and enters 2026 with the league’s top current rating. The Seahawks’ projected 5–1 division record and 10–2 conference mark support a deep postseason run.
Data Outlook for 2026: Projected record: 14–3 (division winner)
Los Angeles Rams
Five-Year Offensive Trend: +4.585 → -4.195 → +1.102 → -0.173 → +7.849
Five-Year Defensive Trend: +2.135 → +0.248 → +0.903 → +1.352 → +2.588
2025 Rating: 104.343
The Rams’ offense rebounded from several uneven years to become the league’s best in 2025. Their defense has been positive throughout the five-year span, giving them the balance to challenge Seattle.
Data Outlook for 2026: Projected record: 13–4
San Francisco 49ers
Five-Year Offensive Trend: +1.098 → +3.015 → +6.349 → +0.729 → +2.279
Five-Year Defensive Trend: +3.306 → +5.023 → +3.722 → -2.411 → +1.125
2025 Rating: 103.130
San Francisco returned to positive territory on defense while keeping its fifth consecutive above-average offense. A 10-win projection would contend in many divisions but places the 49ers third here.
Data Outlook for 2026: Projected record: 10–7
Arizona Cardinals
Five-Year Offensive Trend: +3.037 → -1.975 → -2.870 → +0.729 → -1.909
Five-Year Defensive Trend: +0.830 → -4.094 → -4.069 → +1.011 → -4.221
2025 Rating: 97.013
Arizona could not maintain its 2024 improvement. Both units returned to negative territory, and a projected 0–6 division record illustrates the gap between the Cardinals and three highly rated rivals.
Data Outlook for 2026: Projected record: 5–12
Projected NFC West Standings (2026)
| Team | 2021–25 Offense Avg. | 2021–25 Defense Avg. | 2025 Rating | 2026 Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | +1.393 | +1.052 | 106.633 | 14–3 (Division) |
| Los Angeles Rams | +1.834 | +1.445 | 104.343 | 13–4 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +2.694 | +2.153 | 103.130 | 10–7 |
| Arizona Cardinals | -0.598 | -2.109 | 97.013 | 5–12 |
Conclusion
Seattle is the clear favorite after finishing first in the NFL in both defense and overall power rating. The Rams are close enough to make the division a race, and San Francisco remains a strong playoff candidate. Arizona faces the league’s toughest divisional climb.