AFC West 2026 Season Preview – A Data-Driven Look
The AFC West has a new favorite. Denver’s steady rise and Kansas City’s 2025 decline put the Broncos on top of the projected standings, while the Chiefs and Chargers remain close enough to challenge. Las Vegas is still well behind the other three teams.
This preview uses adjusted offense, defense, and power ratings from 2021 through 2025 to measure the shift in the division.
Division Overview (2021–2025)
Denver’s power rating has improved in three consecutive seasons, reaching 103.043 in 2025. Kansas City still owns the best five-year averages, especially on defense, but its offense fell below average last season. The Chargers remain near league average overall, while the Raiders declined again.
Defensive Trends
Denver (+3.891) and Kansas City (+3.634) led the division in 2025. The Chargers stayed above average at +2.322, while Las Vegas finished last at -2.790.
Offensive Trends
Every AFC West offense finished at or below average in 2025. Denver was closest at +0.008, followed by Kansas City (-1.671) and the Chargers (-1.901). Las Vegas fell sharply to -8.125.
Power Ratings
Denver’s 103.043 was easily the division’s best 2025 rating. The Chargers finished at 100.659, Kansas City fell to 98.516, and Las Vegas declined to 95.025.
Team-by-Team Data Analysis
Denver Broncos
Five-Year Offensive Trend: -5.285 → -5.945 → -0.621 → +0.918 → +0.008
Five-Year Defensive Trend: +4.303 → +0.869 → -2.927 → +3.996 → +3.891
2025 Rating: 103.043
Denver’s offense has climbed out of the deep negatives that defined 2021 and 2022, while the defense has produced consecutive seasons near +4.0. That balance makes the Broncos the projected division winner.
Data Outlook for 2026: Projected record: 10–7 (division winner)
Kansas City Chiefs
Five-Year Offensive Trend: +7.097 → +7.526 → +0.603 → +0.557 → -1.671
Five-Year Defensive Trend: +1.445 → -0.182 → +6.037 → +3.451 → +3.634
2025 Rating: 98.516
Kansas City’s defense remains a strength, but the offense has declined for three straight seasons and finally fell below average in 2025. The five-year profile still demands respect, though the Chiefs no longer enter the season as the automatic favorite.
Data Outlook for 2026: Projected record: 9–8
Los Angeles Chargers
Five-Year Offensive Trend: +5.169 → +0.679 → -0.411 → -0.388 → -1.901
Five-Year Defensive Trend: -4.280 → -1.331 → -1.225 → +3.841 → +2.322
2025 Rating: 100.659
The Chargers have transformed from an offense-led team into a defense-led one. Their overall rating remains above 100, but the projection’s 1–5 division record makes it difficult for them to keep pace with Denver and Kansas City.
Data Outlook for 2026: Projected record: 8–9
Las Vegas Raiders
Five-Year Offensive Trend: -1.063 → +1.122 → -2.398 → -4.469 → -8.125
Five-Year Defensive Trend: -2.299 → -3.542 → +1.877 → -2.876 → -2.790
2025 Rating: 95.025
Las Vegas posted the division’s weakest rating on both sides of the ball in 2025. The offense’s three-year slide is especially severe, leaving the Raiders with a large gap to close before they can challenge their division rivals.
Data Outlook for 2026: Projected record: 4–13
Projected AFC West Standings (2026)
| Team | 2021–25 Offense Avg. | 2021–25 Defense Avg. | 2025 Rating | 2026 Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | -2.185 | +2.026 | 103.043 | 10–7 (Division) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +2.822 | +2.877 | 98.516 | 9–8 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +0.630 | -0.135 | 100.659 | 8–9 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | -2.987 | -1.926 | 95.025 | 4–13 |
Conclusion
Denver’s rise and Kansas City’s offensive decline have changed the AFC West hierarchy. The Broncos are the data-driven favorite, but the Chiefs remain within one projected win and the Chargers are capable of joining the race. Las Vegas is still in a different stage from the division’s top three.