The 2026 college football season is almost here, so it is time to see what the numbers expect from every FBS team. These projections use each school’s ratings from the past few seasons along with its 2026 schedule to predict overall and conference records.

There is an important limitation to keep in mind: this is a ratings-based projection, not a complete evaluation of each team’s current roster. It does not account for transfers, incoming freshmen, other new players or coaching changes. Teams that changed significantly during the offseason may be better or worse than their projection. Think of this as a baseline for the season rather than a definitive prediction.

A new way to rank conferences

I am also introducing a new conference rating this season. In the past, I ranked conferences using the average rating of every team. That method could allow a few teams at the bottom of a conference to outweigh the strength of its best teams.

The new system uses three measures:

  • 50% comes from the average rating of the conference’s top five teams.
  • 30% comes from the conference’s median team rating.
  • 20% comes from the average rating of every team in the conference.

This gives the most weight to a conference’s strongest teams while still accounting for its middle and overall depth.

2025 conference rankings under the new system

To show how the change affects the rankings, here is how the conferences would have finished in 2025 using the new formula. Rating is the new weighted conference rating, while Average is the conference-wide mean that I used under the previous system.

Rank Conference Rating Average
1 Big 10 130.867 127.754
2 SEC 129.731 127.836
3 Big 12 128.316 125.966
4 ACC 126.948 124.657
5 FBS Independent 126.435 126.435
6 AAC 124.263 121.614
7 MWC 121.309 119.407
8 Sun Belt 119.680 117.913
9 Pac-12 119.247 119.247
10 CUSA 118.344 116.671
11 MAC 117.011 114.917

Projected conference standings

The records below are projections for the 2026 regular season based on the model and each team’s current schedule. Ties in projected conference records are ordered by the underlying ratings; they are not predictions of official conference tiebreakers.

AAC

Rank School W L Conf W Conf L
1 Navy 9 3 8 1
2 South Fla. 10 2 6 2
3 Tulane 9 3 6 2
4 North Texas 9 3 6 2
5 East Carolina 9 3 6 2
6 Army West Point 7 5 5 4
7 Memphis 7 5 4 4
8 UTSA 7 5 4 4
9 Temple 5 7 4 4
10 Tulsa 5 7 3 5
11 Fla. Atlantic 4 8 2 6
12 UAB 4 8 2 6
13 Rice 3 9 1 7
14 Charlotte 2 10 0 8

ACC

Rank School W L Conf W Conf L
1 Miami (FL) 11 1 9 0
2 SMU 9 3 7 2
3 Virginia 9 3 6 3
4 NC State 8 4 6 3
5 Pittsburgh 8 4 6 3
6 Louisville 7 5 6 3
7 Georgia Tech 8 4 5 3
8 Clemson 7 5 5 3
9 Duke 7 5 5 4
10 Wake Forest 7 5 4 5
11 Florida St. 6 6 3 5
12 California 5 7 3 6
13 Stanford 4 8 3 6
14 Virginia Tech 4 8 3 6
15 North Carolina 3 9 1 7
16 Boston College 3 9 1 7
17 Syracuse 3 9 1 8

Big 10

Rank School W L Conf W Conf L
1 Indiana 11 1 8 1
2 Oregon 11 1 8 1
3 Ohio St. 9 3 7 2
4 Iowa 9 3 6 3
5 Penn St. 9 3 6 3
6 Illinois 8 4 6 3
7 Southern California 8 4 5 4
8 Washington 7 5 5 4
9 Michigan 7 5 4 5
10 Minnesota 6 6 4 5
11 Wisconsin 6 6 4 5
12 Rutgers 6 6 4 5
13 Northwestern 6 6 3 6
14 Nebraska 6 6 3 6
15 UCLA 4 8 3 6
16 Maryland 4 8 2 7
17 Purdue 3 9 2 7
18 Michigan St. 4 8 1 8

Big 12

Rank School W L Conf W Conf L
1 Texas Tech 11 1 8 1
2 BYU 10 2 7 2
3 Utah 10 2 7 2
4 TCU 8 4 6 3
5 Iowa St. 8 4 6 3
6 Houston 8 4 5 4
7 Arizona St. 7 5 5 4
8 Kansas 6 6 5 4
9 Arizona 7 5 4 5
10 Cincinnati 6 6 4 5
11 Colorado 4 8 4 5
12 Kansas St. 6 6 3 6
13 UCF 5 7 3 6
14 Baylor 5 7 2 7
15 West Virginia 4 8 2 7
16 Oklahoma St. 2 10 1 8

CUSA

Rank School W L Conf W Conf L
1 Kennesaw St. 8 4 7 1
2 Western Ky. 7 5 5 3
3 Jacksonville St. 7 5 5 3
4 FIU 7 5 5 3
5 Delaware 6 6 5 3
6 Missouri St. 6 6 4 4
7 New Mexico St. 4 8 3 5
8 Liberty 5 7 2 6
9 Middle Tenn. 4 8 2 6
10 Sam Houston 3 9 2 6

FBS Independent

Rank School W L Conf W Conf L
1 Notre Dame 10 2 0 0
2 UConn 8 4 0 0

MAC

Rank School W L Conf W Conf L
1 Western Mich. 9 3 7 1
2 Toledo 9 3 6 2
3 Miami (OH) 7 5 6 2
4 Ohio 8 4 5 3
5 Central Mich. 6 6 4 4
6 Eastern Mich. 5 7 4 4
7 Ball St. 5 7 4 4
8 Bowling Green 4 8 4 4
9 Buffalo 5 7 3 5
10 Akron 4 8 3 5
11 Kent St. 4 8 3 5
12 Sacramento St. 4 8 3 5
13 Massachusetts 1 11 0 8

MWC

Rank School W L Conf W Conf L
1 New Mexico 9 3 6 2
2 North Dakota St. 9 3 6 3
3 Hawaii 8 4 5 3
4 UNLV 8 4 5 3
5 Air Force 6 6 4 4
6 Wyoming 5 7 4 4
7 San Jose St. 5 8 4 5
8 Nevada 4 8 3 5
9 NIU 3 9 3 5
10 UTEP 3 9 1 7

Pac-12

Rank School W L Conf W Conf L
1 San Diego St. 8 4 7 1
2 Washington St. 7 5 5 3
3 Boise St. 7 5 5 3
4 Fresno St. 6 6 4 4
5 Texas St. 5 7 4 4
6 Utah St. 5 7 3 5
7 Oregon St. 3 9 3 5
8 Colorado St. 3 9 1 7

SEC

Rank School W L Conf W Conf L
1 Georgia 10 2 7 2
2 Alabama 9 3 7 2
3 Oklahoma 9 3 7 2
4 Texas A&M 9 3 7 2
5 Ole Miss 9 3 6 3
6 Texas 8 4 5 4
7 Vanderbilt 8 4 5 4
8 Tennessee 7 5 5 4
9 Missouri 7 5 4 5
10 LSU 6 6 4 5
11 Florida 5 7 3 6
12 Auburn 5 7 3 6
13 South Carolina 5 7 3 6
14 Mississippi St. 5 7 3 6
15 Kentucky 5 7 2 7
16 Arkansas 3 9 1 8

Sun Belt

Rank School W L Conf W Conf L
1 James Madison 11 1 8 0
2 Old Dominion 9 3 6 2
3 Louisiana Tech 7 5 5 3
4 Troy 6 6 4 4
5 Arkansas St. 6 6 4 4
6 Marshall 6 6 4 4
7 Louisiana 6 6 4 4
8 Ga. Southern 5 7 4 4
9 Southern Miss. 5 7 4 4
10 South Alabama 4 8 4 4
11 Coastal Carolina 6 6 3 5
12 App State 5 7 3 5
13 ULM 3 9 2 6
14 Georgia St. 3 9 1 7