AFC South 2026 Season Preview – A Data-Driven Look
The AFC South may produce one of the NFL’s closest division races. Houston and Jacksonville are both projected to win 12 games, Indianapolis remains a credible playoff contender, and Tennessee is still rebuilding.
This preview uses adjusted offense, defense, and power ratings from 2021 through 2025 to show how quickly the division changed last season.
Division Overview (2021–2025)
Houston and Jacksonville finished 2025 as top-five teams by power rating after both sat near 100 or below a year earlier. Indianapolis paired an excellent offense with another poor defense, while Tennessee remained below average on both sides of the ball.
Defensive Trends
Houston’s defense surged to +6.846, the best mark in the division by more than four points. Jacksonville also rebounded to +2.685. Indianapolis (-1.775) improved but remained below average, and Tennessee fell to -4.726.
Offensive Trends
Indianapolis led the division at +5.658, narrowly ahead of Jacksonville at +4.867. Houston moved above average at +1.221, while Tennessee remained last at -4.638.
Power Ratings
Jacksonville finished 2025 at 103.719, just ahead of Houston at 103.607. Indianapolis improved to 100.886, while Tennessee remained well below average at 96.094.
Team-by-Team Data Analysis
Houston Texans
Five-Year Offensive Trend: -6.591 → -5.828 → +1.093 → -1.116 → +1.221
Five-Year Defensive Trend: -3.743 → -3.135 → -0.033 → +1.175 → +6.846
2025 Rating: 103.607
Houston’s rebuild is most visible on defense, which progressed from one of the league’s weakest units to one of its best. With the offense also back above average, the Texans have the balance to win a projected tie for first place.
Data Outlook for 2026: Projected record: 12–5 (division winner)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Five-Year Offensive Trend: -7.928 → +1.773 → +1.046 → -4.424 → +4.867
Five-Year Defensive Trend: -3.979 → +0.101 → +0.117 → -3.617 → +2.685
2025 Rating: 103.719
Jacksonville reversed its 2024 collapse with major gains on both sides of the ball. Its 2025 power rating was slightly better than Houston’s, but the projected division and conference records leave the Jaguars in second place despite a 12-win forecast.
Data Outlook for 2026: Projected record: 12–5
Indianapolis Colts
Five-Year Offensive Trend: +3.589 → -5.308 → +2.345 → -0.612 → +5.658
Five-Year Defensive Trend: +0.934 → -3.548 → -4.061 → -3.571 → -1.775
2025 Rating: 100.886
Indianapolis owns the division’s best five-year offensive average, but the defense has been below average in four straight seasons. The Colts project to double-digit wins, though that imbalance keeps them behind the two favorites.
Data Outlook for 2026: Projected record: 10–7
Tennessee Titans
Five-Year Offensive Trend: +1.282 → -4.887 → -4.096 → -4.777 → -4.638
Five-Year Defensive Trend: +2.014 → +1.301 → +0.369 → -4.030 → -4.726
2025 Rating: 96.094
Tennessee has recorded four consecutive negative offensive seasons, and its defense has now fallen sharply in back-to-back years. The data still points to a substantial gap between the Titans and the rest of the division.
Data Outlook for 2026: Projected record: 5–12
Projected AFC South Standings (2026)
| Team | 2021–25 Offense Avg. | 2021–25 Defense Avg. | 2025 Rating | 2026 Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | -2.244 | +0.222 | 103.607 | 12–5 (Division) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -0.933 | -0.939 | 103.719 | 12–5 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +1.134 | -2.404 | 100.886 | 10–7 |
| Tennessee Titans | -3.423 | -1.014 | 96.094 | 5–12 |
Conclusion
Houston and Jacksonville enter 2026 almost inseparable, with the projection giving Houston the tiebreaking edge. Indianapolis has the offense to stay in the playoff picture but needs more from its defense. Tennessee remains a clear fourth while its rebuild continues.