AFC North 2026 Season Preview – A Data-Driven Look
The AFC North enters 2026 without a dominant favorite. Baltimore and Pittsburgh project to finish level at the top, Cincinnati remains dangerous despite a collapsing defense, and Cleveland is trying to climb out of the division cellar.
This preview uses adjusted offense, defense, and power ratings from 2021 through 2025 to identify the trends behind the projected standings.
Division Overview (2021–2025)
Baltimore has the division’s best five-year balance, but both units regressed in 2025. Pittsburgh continues to win with defense, Cincinnati remains offense-first, and Cleveland’s modest defensive improvement has not offset two disastrous offensive seasons.
Defensive Trends
All four defenses moved closer to league average in 2025. Cleveland led the division at +0.633, followed by Pittsburgh at +0.330. Baltimore (-0.394) was near average, while Cincinnati fell to -6.378.
Offensive Trends
Baltimore (+2.047) and Cincinnati (+1.523) remained above average. Pittsburgh improved to -0.526, but Cleveland declined again and finished at -8.272.
Power Ratings
Pittsburgh’s 100.365 was the division’s only rating above 100 in 2025. Baltimore fell to 99.724, while Cincinnati (97.737) and Cleveland (96.591) finished well behind.
Team-by-Team Data Analysis
Baltimore Ravens
Five-Year Offensive Trend: -0.365 → -0.674 → +6.032 → +7.835 → +2.047
Five-Year Defensive Trend: +0.176 → +2.880 → +6.497 → +2.455 → -0.394
2025 Rating: 99.724
Baltimore could not sustain its outstanding 2023–2024 form, but the Ravens still own the division’s strongest five-year scoring profile. That longer track record gives them the narrow edge in a projected tie at the top.
Data Outlook for 2026: Projected record: 9–8 (division winner)
Pittsburgh Steelers
Five-Year Offensive Trend: -2.591 → -3.239 → -3.714 → -1.393 → -0.526
Five-Year Defensive Trend: -0.428 → +1.741 → +3.069 → +2.862 → +0.330
2025 Rating: 100.365
Pittsburgh has gradually repaired its offense while keeping its defense above average over the full five-year span. The Steelers finished 2025 with the division’s best power rating and should remain in the title race throughout 2026.
Data Outlook for 2026: Projected record: 9–8
Cincinnati Bengals
Five-Year Offensive Trend: +2.720 → +5.190 → +0.717 → +4.691 → +1.523
Five-Year Defensive Trend: +0.766 → +2.246 → +0.037 → -3.833 → -6.378
2025 Rating: 97.737
Cincinnati has produced an above-average offense in all five seasons, but its defense has deteriorated dramatically. That imbalance lowers the Bengals’ ceiling even though the projection gives them an excellent 5–1 division record.
Data Outlook for 2026: Projected record: 7–10
Cleveland Browns
Five-Year Offensive Trend: -3.121 → +0.421 → +1.421 → -7.846 → -8.272
Five-Year Defensive Trend: +1.428 → -1.470 → -0.775 → -2.120 → +0.633
2025 Rating: 96.591
Cleveland’s defense returned to positive territory, but the offense was the weakest in the division for a second consecutive year. The projected record improves, yet a 1–5 division mark keeps the Browns fourth.
Data Outlook for 2026: Projected record: 7–10
Projected AFC North Standings (2026)
| Team | 2021–25 Offense Avg. | 2021–25 Defense Avg. | 2025 Rating | 2026 Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | +2.975 | +2.323 | 99.724 | 9–8 (Division) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -2.293 | +1.515 | 100.365 | 9–8 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +2.968 | -1.432 | 97.737 | 7–10 |
| Cleveland Browns | -3.479 | -0.461 | 96.591 | 7–10 |
Conclusion
The AFC North projects as a compressed race rather than a division with a clear heavyweight. Baltimore’s long-term balance earns the top spot, Pittsburgh is close enough to take it, and Cincinnati and Cleveland both need to fix a major weakness before they can make the standings a four-team fight.