Final Results
Average FBS power rating: 100.000. Estimated home-field advantage: 2.903 points (1.872 power-rating units) from 8 rated regular-season games; regression R²: 0.960. Game-margin standard deviation: 2.438 points.
Expected wins are the average of 25,000 Monte Carlo simulations of an average FBS team playing each school’s schedule.
| Rank | School | GP | W | Expected W (No HFA) | Expected W (HFA) | WAA (No HFA) | WAA (HFA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MEMPHIS | 1 | 1.000 | 0.967 | 0.748 | 0.033 | 0.252 |
| 2 | NORTH CAROLINA | 1 | 1.000 | 0.977 | 0.791 | 0.023 | 0.209 |
| 3 | STANFORD | 1 | 1.000 | 0.985 | 0.999 | 0.015 | 0.001 |
| 4 | EASTERN MICH. | 1 | 1.000 | 0.993 | 1.000 | 0.007 | 0.000 |
| 5 | SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA | 1 | 1.000 | 0.994 | 1.000 | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| 6 | FLORIDA ST. | 1 | 1.000 | 0.997 | 1.000 | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| 7 | NORTH DAKOTA ST. | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 8 | VIRGINIA | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 9 | JACKSONVILLE ST. | 1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 10 | NC STATE | 1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 11 | NEW MEXICO ST. | 1 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.000 | -0.003 | -0.000 |
| 12 | SACRAMENTO ST. | 1 | 0.000 | 0.006 | 0.000 | -0.006 | -0.000 |
| 13 | SAN JOSE ST. | 1 | 0.000 | 0.007 | 0.000 | -0.007 | -0.000 |
| 14 | HAWAII | 1 | 0.000 | 0.014 | 0.000 | -0.014 | -0.000 |
| 15 | TCU | 1 | 0.000 | 0.024 | 0.214 | -0.024 | -0.214 |
| 16 | UNLV | 1 | 0.000 | 0.031 | 0.257 | -0.031 | -0.257 |