Final Results
Average FBS power rating: 122.435. Estimated home-field advantage: 3.091 points (1.482 power-rating units) from 878 rated regular-season games; regression R²: 0.652. Game-margin standard deviation: 13.226 points.
Expected wins are the average of 25,000 Monte Carlo simulations of an average FBS team playing each school’s schedule.
| Rank | School | GP | W | Expected W (No HFA) | Expected W (HFA) | WAA (No HFA) | WAA (HFA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | INDIANA | 16 | 16.000 | 5.077 | 5.354 | 10.923 | 10.646 |
| 2 | OREGON | 15 | 13.000 | 4.437 | 4.619 | 8.563 | 8.381 |
| 3 | MIAMI (FL) | 16 | 13.000 | 5.060 | 5.214 | 7.940 | 7.786 |
| 4 | OLE MISS | 15 | 13.000 | 5.333 | 5.723 | 7.667 | 7.277 |
| 5 | OHIO ST. | 14 | 12.000 | 4.609 | 4.768 | 7.391 | 7.232 |
| 6 | BYU | 14 | 12.000 | 4.737 | 4.843 | 7.263 | 7.157 |
| 7 | GEORGIA | 14 | 12.000 | 4.989 | 5.080 | 7.011 | 6.920 |
| 8 | ALABAMA | 15 | 11.000 | 4.537 | 4.546 | 6.463 | 6.454 |
| 9 | TEXAS TECH | 14 | 12.000 | 6.120 | 6.177 | 5.880 | 5.823 |
| 10 | TEXAS A&M | 13 | 11.000 | 4.920 | 5.210 | 6.080 | 5.790 |
| 11 | UTAH | 13 | 11.000 | 5.530 | 5.372 | 5.470 | 5.628 |
| 12 | OKLAHOMA | 13 | 10.000 | 4.267 | 4.426 | 5.733 | 5.574 |
| 13 | NOTRE DAME | 12 | 10.000 | 4.682 | 4.844 | 5.318 | 5.156 |
| 14 | TEXAS | 13 | 10.000 | 4.974 | 5.068 | 5.026 | 4.932 |
| 15 | MICHIGAN | 13 | 9.000 | 4.427 | 4.382 | 4.573 | 4.618 |
| 16 | IOWA | 13 | 9.000 | 4.560 | 4.443 | 4.440 | 4.557 |
| 17 | VANDERBILT | 13 | 10.000 | 5.280 | 5.459 | 4.720 | 4.541 |
| 18 | VIRGINIA | 14 | 11.000 | 6.421 | 6.554 | 4.579 | 4.446 |
| 19 | SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA | 13 | 9.000 | 4.369 | 4.581 | 4.631 | 4.419 |
| 20 | TULANE | 14 | 11.000 | 6.669 | 6.712 | 4.331 | 4.288 |
| 21 | ILLINOIS | 13 | 9.000 | 4.572 | 4.792 | 4.428 | 4.208 |
| 22 | TCU | 13 | 9.000 | 4.702 | 4.815 | 4.298 | 4.185 |
| 23 | NORTH TEXAS | 14 | 12.000 | 8.199 | 8.162 | 3.801 | 3.838 |
| 24 | HOUSTON | 13 | 10.000 | 6.170 | 6.216 | 3.830 | 3.784 |
| 25 | WASHINGTON | 13 | 9.000 | 5.395 | 5.266 | 3.605 | 3.734 |
| 26 | ARIZONA | 13 | 9.000 | 5.346 | 5.378 | 3.654 | 3.622 |
| 27 | NAVY | 13 | 11.000 | 7.414 | 7.412 | 3.586 | 3.588 |
| 28 | DUKE | 14 | 9.000 | 5.607 | 5.497 | 3.393 | 3.503 |
| 29 | ARIZONA ST. | 13 | 8.000 | 4.669 | 4.674 | 3.331 | 3.326 |
| 30 | IOWA ST. | 12 | 8.000 | 4.859 | 4.789 | 3.141 | 3.211 |
| 31 | GEORGIA TECH | 13 | 9.000 | 5.747 | 5.790 | 3.253 | 3.210 |
| 32 | NC STATE | 13 | 8.000 | 4.761 | 4.901 | 3.239 | 3.099 |
| 33 | SMU | 13 | 9.000 | 6.011 | 5.958 | 2.989 | 3.042 |
| 34 | LOUISVILLE | 13 | 9.000 | 6.031 | 6.240 | 2.969 | 2.760 |
| 35 | JAMES MADISON | 14 | 12.000 | 9.269 | 9.294 | 2.731 | 2.706 |
| 36 | WAKE FOREST | 13 | 9.000 | 6.400 | 6.431 | 2.600 | 2.569 |
| 37 | TENNESSEE | 13 | 8.000 | 5.536 | 5.593 | 2.464 | 2.407 |
| 38 | PITTSBURGH | 13 | 8.000 | 5.861 | 5.701 | 2.139 | 2.299 |
| 39 | MISSOURI | 13 | 8.000 | 5.538 | 5.776 | 2.462 | 2.224 |
| 40 | LSU | 13 | 7.000 | 4.568 | 4.815 | 2.432 | 2.185 |
| 41 | SOUTH FLA. | 13 | 9.000 | 6.938 | 6.822 | 2.062 | 2.178 |
| 42 | MINNESOTA | 13 | 8.000 | 5.491 | 5.846 | 2.509 | 2.154 |
| 43 | PENN ST. | 13 | 7.000 | 5.007 | 4.956 | 1.993 | 2.044 |
| 44 | NEBRASKA | 13 | 7.000 | 5.087 | 5.090 | 1.913 | 1.910 |
| 45 | EAST CAROLINA | 13 | 9.000 | 7.173 | 7.132 | 1.827 | 1.868 |
| 46 | NORTHWESTERN | 13 | 7.000 | 5.295 | 5.443 | 1.705 | 1.557 |
| 47 | OLD DOMINION | 13 | 10.000 | 8.739 | 8.716 | 1.261 | 1.284 |
| 48 | CINCINNATI | 13 | 7.000 | 5.440 | 5.754 | 1.560 | 1.246 |
| 49 | KANSAS ST. | 12 | 6.000 | 4.763 | 4.935 | 1.237 | 1.065 |
| 50 | NEW MEXICO | 13 | 9.000 | 8.247 | 8.055 | 0.753 | 0.945 |
| 51 | CLEMSON | 13 | 7.000 | 6.039 | 6.195 | 0.961 | 0.805 |
| 52 | BOISE ST. | 14 | 9.000 | 8.113 | 8.215 | 0.887 | 0.785 |
| 53 | FLORIDA | 12 | 4.000 | 3.240 | 3.394 | 0.760 | 0.606 |
| 54 | KENTUCKY | 12 | 5.000 | 4.326 | 4.408 | 0.674 | 0.592 |
| 55 | WISCONSIN | 12 | 4.000 | 3.210 | 3.411 | 0.790 | 0.589 |
| 56 | CALIFORNIA | 13 | 7.000 | 6.632 | 6.422 | 0.368 | 0.578 |
| 57 | SAN DIEGO ST. | 13 | 9.000 | 8.644 | 8.566 | 0.356 | 0.434 |
| 58 | RUTGERS | 12 | 5.000 | 4.488 | 4.585 | 0.512 | 0.415 |
| 59 | BAYLOR | 12 | 5.000 | 4.542 | 4.688 | 0.458 | 0.312 |
| 60 | MEMPHIS | 13 | 8.000 | 7.668 | 7.741 | 0.332 | 0.259 |
| 61 | WESTERN MICH. | 14 | 10.000 | 9.716 | 9.754 | 0.284 | 0.246 |
| 62 | AUBURN | 12 | 5.000 | 4.731 | 4.780 | 0.269 | 0.220 |
| 63 | UNLV | 14 | 10.000 | 9.696 | 9.784 | 0.304 | 0.216 |
| 64 | KENNESAW ST. | 14 | 10.000 | 9.854 | 9.787 | 0.146 | 0.213 |
| 65 | FLORIDA ST. | 12 | 5.000 | 4.917 | 4.881 | 0.083 | 0.119 |
| 66 | MISSISSIPPI ST. | 13 | 5.000 | 4.888 | 4.891 | 0.112 | 0.109 |
| 67 | HAWAII | 13 | 9.000 | 8.783 | 8.966 | 0.217 | 0.034 |
| 68 | ARMY WEST POINT | 13 | 7.000 | 7.134 | 6.985 | -0.134 | 0.015 |
| 69 | WASHINGTON ST. | 13 | 7.000 | 6.845 | 7.020 | 0.155 | -0.020 |
| 70 | KANSAS | 12 | 5.000 | 4.881 | 5.041 | 0.119 | -0.041 |
| 71 | WEST VIRGINIA | 12 | 4.000 | 4.238 | 4.104 | -0.238 | -0.104 |
| 72 | OHIO | 13 | 9.000 | 9.345 | 9.146 | -0.345 | -0.146 |
| 73 | SOUTH CAROLINA | 12 | 4.000 | 3.968 | 4.273 | 0.032 | -0.273 |
| 74 | FRESNO ST. | 13 | 9.000 | 9.342 | 9.320 | -0.342 | -0.320 |
| 75 | UTSA | 13 | 7.000 | 7.296 | 7.433 | -0.296 | -0.433 |
| 76 | UCLA | 12 | 3.000 | 3.293 | 3.451 | -0.293 | -0.451 |
| 77 | UCONN | 13 | 9.000 | 9.708 | 9.488 | -0.708 | -0.488 |
| 78 | STANFORD | 12 | 4.000 | 4.574 | 4.635 | -0.574 | -0.635 |
| 79 | UCF | 12 | 5.000 | 5.507 | 5.670 | -0.507 | -0.670 |
| 80 | WESTERN KY. | 13 | 9.000 | 9.925 | 9.704 | -0.925 | -0.704 |
| 81 | MICHIGAN ST. | 12 | 4.000 | 4.457 | 4.734 | -0.457 | -0.734 |
| 82 | COLORADO | 12 | 3.000 | 3.940 | 4.060 | -0.940 | -1.060 |
| 83 | VIRGINIA TECH | 12 | 3.000 | 4.029 | 4.081 | -1.029 | -1.081 |
| 84 | TEMPLE | 12 | 5.000 | 6.075 | 6.156 | -1.075 | -1.156 |
| 85 | MARYLAND | 12 | 4.000 | 5.269 | 5.192 | -1.269 | -1.192 |
| 86 | TOLEDO | 13 | 8.000 | 9.459 | 9.283 | -1.459 | -1.283 |
| 87 | UTAH ST. | 13 | 6.000 | 7.722 | 7.446 | -1.722 | -1.446 |
| 88 | PURDUE | 12 | 2.000 | 3.475 | 3.495 | -1.475 | -1.495 |
| 89 | LOUISIANA TECH | 13 | 8.000 | 9.605 | 9.536 | -1.605 | -1.536 |
| 90 | GA. SOUTHERN | 13 | 7.000 | 8.771 | 8.602 | -1.771 | -1.602 |
| 91 | JACKSONVILLE ST. | 14 | 9.000 | 10.813 | 10.664 | -1.813 | -1.664 |
| 92 | TROY | 14 | 8.000 | 9.818 | 9.726 | -1.818 | -1.726 |
| 93 | NORTH CAROLINA | 12 | 4.000 | 5.789 | 5.758 | -1.789 | -1.758 |
| 94 | SYRACUSE | 12 | 3.000 | 4.719 | 4.813 | -1.719 | -1.813 |
| 95 | CENTRAL MICH. | 13 | 7.000 | 9.340 | 9.040 | -2.340 | -2.040 |
| 96 | COASTAL CAROLINA | 13 | 6.000 | 8.317 | 8.068 | -2.317 | -2.068 |
| 97 | ARKANSAS | 12 | 2.000 | 4.006 | 4.133 | -2.006 | -2.133 |
| 98 | TEXAS ST. | 13 | 7.000 | 9.335 | 9.200 | -2.335 | -2.200 |
| 99 | FIU | 13 | 7.000 | 9.353 | 9.201 | -2.353 | -2.201 |
| 100 | MISSOURI ST. | 13 | 7.000 | 9.176 | 9.206 | -2.176 | -2.206 |
| 101 | ARKANSAS ST. | 13 | 7.000 | 9.490 | 9.351 | -2.490 | -2.351 |
| 102 | MIAMI (OH) | 14 | 7.000 | 9.777 | 9.542 | -2.777 | -2.542 |
| 103 | DELAWARE | 13 | 7.000 | 9.762 | 9.569 | -2.762 | -2.569 |
| 104 | RICE | 13 | 5.000 | 7.597 | 7.644 | -2.597 | -2.644 |
| 105 | SOUTHERN MISS. | 13 | 7.000 | 9.871 | 9.786 | -2.871 | -2.786 |
| 106 | FLA. ATLANTIC | 12 | 4.000 | 6.863 | 6.787 | -2.863 | -2.787 |
| 107 | UAB | 12 | 4.000 | 6.856 | 6.791 | -2.856 | -2.791 |
| 108 | MARSHALL | 12 | 5.000 | 8.096 | 8.222 | -3.096 | -3.222 |
| 109 | KENT ST. | 12 | 5.000 | 8.523 | 8.304 | -3.523 | -3.304 |
| 110 | TULSA | 12 | 4.000 | 7.429 | 7.350 | -3.429 | -3.350 |
| 111 | BOSTON COLLEGE | 12 | 2.000 | 5.315 | 5.361 | -3.315 | -3.361 |
| 112 | LOUISIANA | 13 | 6.000 | 9.490 | 9.457 | -3.490 | -3.457 |
| 113 | AIR FORCE | 12 | 4.000 | 7.662 | 7.628 | -3.662 | -3.628 |
| 114 | OKLAHOMA ST. | 12 | 1.000 | 4.444 | 4.677 | -3.444 | -3.677 |
| 115 | WYOMING | 12 | 4.000 | 8.016 | 7.815 | -4.016 | -3.815 |
| 116 | SOUTH ALABAMA | 12 | 4.000 | 8.243 | 8.187 | -4.243 | -4.187 |
| 117 | OREGON ST. | 12 | 2.000 | 6.098 | 6.304 | -4.098 | -4.304 |
| 118 | APP STATE | 13 | 5.000 | 9.404 | 9.397 | -4.404 | -4.397 |
| 119 | BALL ST. | 12 | 4.000 | 8.796 | 8.413 | -4.796 | -4.413 |
| 120 | NEVADA | 12 | 3.000 | 7.616 | 7.520 | -4.616 | -4.520 |
| 121 | SAN JOSE ST. | 12 | 3.000 | 7.615 | 7.580 | -4.615 | -4.580 |
| 122 | LIBERTY | 12 | 4.000 | 8.647 | 8.583 | -4.647 | -4.583 |
| 123 | AKRON | 12 | 5.000 | 9.787 | 9.608 | -4.787 | -4.608 |
| 124 | BUFFALO | 12 | 5.000 | 9.524 | 9.663 | -4.524 | -4.663 |
| 125 | NEW MEXICO ST. | 12 | 4.000 | 8.864 | 8.708 | -4.864 | -4.708 |
| 126 | ULM | 12 | 3.000 | 8.097 | 7.921 | -5.097 | -4.921 |
| 127 | COLORADO ST. | 12 | 2.000 | 6.807 | 6.932 | -4.807 | -4.932 |
| 128 | BOWLING GREEN | 12 | 4.000 | 9.118 | 9.055 | -5.118 | -5.055 |
| 129 | CHARLOTTE | 12 | 1.000 | 6.009 | 6.112 | -5.009 | -5.112 |
| 130 | EASTERN MICH. | 12 | 4.000 | 9.304 | 9.177 | -5.304 | -5.177 |
| 131 | NIU | 12 | 3.000 | 8.703 | 8.605 | -5.703 | -5.605 |
| 132 | GEORGIA ST. | 12 | 1.000 | 6.977 | 6.928 | -5.977 | -5.928 |
| 133 | MIDDLE TENN. | 12 | 3.000 | 9.064 | 8.940 | -6.064 | -5.940 |
| 134 | SAM HOUSTON | 12 | 2.000 | 8.396 | 8.281 | -6.396 | -6.281 |
| 135 | UTEP | 12 | 2.000 | 8.908 | 8.773 | -6.908 | -6.773 |
| 136 | MASSACHUSETTS | 12 | 0.000 | 8.570 | 8.467 | -8.570 | -8.467 |