NFC South 2025 Season Preview – A Data-Driven Look
The NFC South enters 2025 with no clear-cut dominant force. Tampa Bay remains dangerous, New Orleans is slipping, Atlanta is steady but unspectacular, and Carolina is in free fall after a disastrous 2024. The division feels wide open, but it may ultimately come down to which team can stabilize on both sides of the ball.
This preview is based on adjusted offense, defense, and power ratings from 2020–2024. These advanced metrics give a clearer picture of long-term trends than win-loss records alone.
Division Overview (2020–2024)
Tampa Bay’s offense and overall rating dipped after peaking early in the decade, but they’re still dangerous. New Orleans has declined steadily since 2020. Atlanta is hanging around the middle of the pack, while Carolina’s 2024 collapse was one of the worst offensive seasons in recent NFL memory.
Defensive Trends
New Orleans has generally fielded the division’s best defense, but their advantage has shrunk. Tampa Bay remains solid, while Atlanta has hovered near league average. Carolina’s defense bottomed out in 2024. Interesting that all four teams defenses have been trending down the last five years.
Offensive Trends
Tampa Bay has the most firepower when healthy, rebounding in 2024 after a rough 2022–2023 stretch. Atlanta’s offense has been improving the last couple of years. New Orleans has steadily declined since 2020, and Carolina hit rock bottom in 2023 and while still bad, it made significant gains over 2023.
Power Ratings
Tampa Bay has been the best team in the division the last two years, but has not been much better than Atlanta or New Orleans have been. Atlanta is trending up but slowly. New Orleans has pretty much been on a 5 year decline. Carolina’s rating cratered in 2023 and barely improved in 2024.
Team-by-Team Data Analysis
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Five-Year Offensive Trend: +6.7 → +7.5 → -3.5 → -0.5 → +5.3
Five-Year Defensive Trend: +3.9 → +1.6 → +0.7 → +2.7 → +0.9
2024 Rating: 101.5
Tampa Bay’s offense returned to form last year, and the defense remains above average. They enter 2025 as the slight favorite in a wide-open division.
Data Outlook for 2025:
Projected record: 10–7
New Orleans Saints
Five-Year Offensive Trend: +3.9 → -1.8 → -2.7 → +1.6 → -3.9
Five-Year Defensive Trend: +4.8 → +3.4 → +1.6 → +0.8 → -0.5
2024 Rating: 96.9
New Orleans’ steady decline on both sides of the ball is alarming. They’ll need a big turnaround to contend.
Data Outlook for 2025:
Projected record: 6-11
Atlanta Falcons
Five-Year Offensive Trend: -0.6 → -4.6 → -0.4 → -4.0 → -0.5
Five-Year Defensive Trend: +0.4 → -4.8 → -2.2 → -1.4 → -2.1
2024 Rating: 99.5
Atlanta has hovered around average for years, with no major strengths or glaring weaknesses. They could contend if either unit takes a leap forward.
Data Outlook for 2025:
Projected record: 9–8
Carolina Panthers
Five-Year Offensive Trend: -3.1 → -5.6 → -1.4 → -8.1 → -3.0
Five-Year Defensive Trend: +1.3 → -0.8 → -1.1 → -2.0 → -8.6
2024 Rating: 96.4
Carolina’s offense has struggled for years, but 2024’s defensive collapse was even worse. They’ll be hard-pressed to compete without dramatic improvement.
Data Outlook for 2025:
Projected record: 5–12
Projected NFC South Standings (2025)
| Team | Offense (Avg) | Defense (Avg) | Rating (2024) | 2025 Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +3.10 | +1.28 | 101.5 | 10–7 (Division) |
| Atlanta Falcons | -1.02 | -1.02 | 99.5 | 9–8 |
| New Orleans Saints | -0.58 | +2.02 | 96.9 | 6-11 |
| Carolina Panthers | -4.24 | -2.24 | 96.4 | 5–12 |
Conclusion
The NFC South doesn’t have the defenses it once had. Tampa Bay should be challenged by Atlanta. The question remains if New Orleans has bottomed out or is there an even worse season coming for them. Carolina’s offense took a step forward last season, but their defense was non-existent.