AFC West 2025 Season Preview – A Data-Driven Look
The AFC West has long been dominated by the Kansas City Chiefs, but 2024 saw some cracks in their offensive juggernaut. Meanwhile, the Chargers and Broncos made significant strides, and the Raiders slid further into rebuild territory. This preview is based purely on adjusted offense, defense, and power ratings from 2020–2024. These metrics reveal each team’s trajectory and provide insight into what to expect for the 2025 season.
Division Overview (2020–2024)
Kansas City has led the way in overall team strength, but the Chargers and Broncos are surging. Denver made a big leap in 2024, while the Raiders have steadily declined in both scoring metrics.
Defensive Trends
Kansas City continues to shine defensively, finishing four of the past five years in positive territory. Their +6.09 adjusted score in 2023 was one of the highest single-season defensive performances in the league. However, they dipped in 2024. In fact, they finished third in the AFC West behind Denver and Los Angeles. Meanwhile, Denver’s defense rebounded sharply in 2024 after a poor showing the previous year. The Chargers are also trending upward, suggesting growing balance on their roster. Las Vegas has shown sporadic improvement but remains inconsistent.
Offensive Trends
Kansas City has been the gold standard for years, consistently finishing among the top offensive teams. But their scoring dipped in 2023 and 2024, barely above average. The Chargers posted an explosive 2021 season but has been consistently average since. Denver has climbed from the league’s offensive basement, improving dramatically the last two years. Las Vegas has declined year over year since 2022, posing serious questions about their offensive direction.
Power Ratings
Even though Kansas City’s offense was barely above average, their defense still carried them to a very strong power rating in 2024. The Chargers and Broncos both improved their power ratings a lot in 2024. The Raiders took a big drop in 2024.
Team-by-Team Data Analysis
Kansas City Chiefs
Five-Year Offensive Trend: +3.69 → +7.08 → +7.54 → +0.68 → +0.64
Five-Year Defensive Trend: +2.56 → +1.51 → -0.13 → +6.08 → +3.47
2024 Rating: 104.56
Kansas City continues to set the standard in the AFC West, with dominant offense earlier in the decade and the best defensive rating in 2023. While their offensive explosiveness has cooled, the Chiefs remain the most complete and consistent team in the division.
Data Outlook for 2025:
Projected record: 11–6
Los Angeles Chargers
Five-Year Offensive Trend: -1.51 → +5.15 → +0.76 → -0.49 → -0.43
Five-Year Defensive Trend: -2.48 → -4.30 → -1.31 → -1.31 → +3.94
2024 Rating: 101.27
The Chargers show signs of upward trajectory on defense, particularly in 2024. While the offense has leveled out after a breakout 2021, this team has enough balance to push for a playoff spot if their 2024 momentum continues.
Data Outlook for 2025:
Projected record: 11-6
Denver Broncos
Five-Year Offensive Trend: -4.76 → -5.19 → -5.92 → -0.56 → +0.97
Five-Year Defensive Trend: -2.23 → +4.33 → +0.91 → -2.93 → +3.96
2024 Rating: 101.11
Denver’s 2024 revival was driven by a significant turnaround on both sides of the ball. After years of offensive woes, they’ve climbed back to respectability. The Broncos enter 2025 as a dark horse playoff contender.
Data Outlook for 2025:
Projected record: 10-7
Las Vegas Raiders
Five-Year Offensive Trend: +2.79 → -0.83 → +1.11 → -2.47 → -4.51
Five-Year Defensive Trend: -5.29 → -2.35 → -3.52 → +1.83 → -2.85
2024 Rating: 96.36
Las Vegas continues to trend downward. Despite brief signs of life in 2022–2023, the Raiders fell hard in 2024. Both offense and defense are below league average, and the five-year rating suggests a team in flux.
Data Outlook for 2025:
Projected record: 5–12
Projected AFC West Standings (2025)
| Team | Offense (Avg) | Defense (Avg) | Rating (2024) | 2025 Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +3.93 | +2.30 | 104.56 | 11–6 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +0.70 | -1.09 | 101.27 | 11-6 |
| Denver Broncos | -2.29 | +0.81 | 101.11 | 10-7 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | -0.38 | -2.84 | 96.36 | 5–12 |
Conclusion
Kansas City remains the gold standard, but both Los Angeles and Denver closed the gap in 2024. The division may no longer be a one-team race, as the Chargers’ and Broncos’ improvements are backed by real metrics. Las Vegas must find answers fast or risk falling further behind.