AFC South 2025 Season Preview – A Data-Driven Look
The AFC South is in transition, with Houston being the lone team with a winning record while the Jaguars, Colts and Titans try to regain footing. This preview analyzes adjusted offense, defense, and power ratings from 2020 through 2024 to build a picture of how the division is trending and what 2025 might hold.
Division Overview (2020–2024)
Houston is on the rise with strong performances on both sides of the ball in 2023 and 2024. Jacksonville peaked in 2022 but has fallen off since. Indianapolis has been erratic and unpredictable, while Tennessee’s steady decline on offense and defense signals a rebuilding year.
Defensive Trends
Houston has shown major defensive growth since 2022. Tennessee and Jacksonville have declined, and Indianapolis remains weak.
Offensive Trends
The whole division is trending down. Which quarterback will step up in 2025?
Power Ratings
Houston finished 2024 at the top of the division, with Jacksonville, Indianapolis and Tennessee struggling to stay afloat.
Team-by-Team Data Analysis
Houston Texans
Five-Year Offensive Trend: -5.55 → -6.32 → -2.71 → +2.96 → +2.80
Five-Year Defensive Trend: -4.31 → -3.63 → -3.20 → +2.33 → +1.30
2024 Rating: 101.92
After years at the bottom, Houston has rapidly improved. Both offense and defense have jumped into the positive range over the last two years, thanks to strong quarterback play and a young defense. They enter 2025 as the division favorite.
Data Outlook for 2025:
Balance and trajectory make them favorites. Projected record: 11–6
Jacksonville Jaguars
Five-Year Offensive Trend: -1.18 → -3.47 → +3.91 → +1.23 → -1.32
Five-Year Defensive Trend: -3.19 → -2.46 → +0.87 → -1.20 → -1.57
2024 Rating: 100.17
Jacksonville peaked in 2022 and has slowly declined since. The team fell off a lot last year with regression on both sides of the ball. The question is whether they will bounce back or continue their decline.
Data Outlook for 2025:
Expect them to rebound slightly. Projected record: 7-10
Indianapolis Colts
Five-Year Offensive Trend: -2.06 → -1.15 → -3.71 → +1.97 → -1.47
Five-Year Defensive Trend: +0.70 → -0.29 → -1.96 → -2.41 → -3.66
2024 Rating: 96.36
Indy has bounced around offensively but continues to slip defensively. Despite a .500-ish record last season, their five-year average shows a team stuck in decline without consistency at QB or on defense.
Data Outlook for 2025:
Erratic trends limit ceiling. Projected record: 7–10
Tennessee Titans
Five-Year Offensive Trend: +1.89 → -0.20 → -3.85 → -3.31 → -2.80
Five-Year Defensive Trend: +1.08 → -1.58 → -0.42 → -2.30 → -2.62
2024 Rating: 95.69
The Titans are slipping quickly, with both units now solidly in negative territory. The departure of Mike Vrabel signals a rebuilding phase, and the data trends support that assessment.
Data Outlook for 2025:
Rebuild in progress. Projected record: 5–12
Projected AFC South Standings (2025)
| Team | Offense (Avg) | Defense (Avg) | Rating (2024) | 2025 Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | +2.80 | +1.30 | 101.92 | 11–6 (Division) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -1.32 | -1.57 | 100.17 | 7-10 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -1.47 | -3.66 | 96.36 | 7–10 |
| Tennessee Titans | -2.80 | -2.62 | 95.69 | 5–12 |
Conclusion
The Texans are the clear leaders in the AFC South entering 2025. Jacksonville’s collapse last year is of major concern. Indianapolis remains unpredictable, and Tennessee is firmly entering a rebuild. If the trends hold, the battle for the division title will go through Houston.