AFC North 2025 Season Preview – A Data-Driven Look
The AFC North has emerged as one of the most physical and competitive divisions in the NFL. Over the past five seasons, teams have traded places in the standings, with Baltimore showcasing elite consistency, Cincinnati’s rise behind explosive offense, and Pittsburgh’s enduring defensive edge. Meanwhile, Cleveland has experienced both promise and collapse across this span.
This preview relies solely on adjusted offense, defense, and power ratings from 2020 through 2024. These metrics reveal each team’s historical trends and allow us to form a grounded projection for the upcoming 2025 season.
Division Overview (2020–2024)
Baltimore has set the standard for balanced dominance, averaging over +3 points on offense and +3.6 on defense. Cincinnati has shown flashes of explosive scoring, while Pittsburgh’s defense has been consistently strong. Cleveland, meanwhile, has struggled to maintain consistency, with both offense and defense slipping in 2024.
Defensive Trends
Baltimore and Pittsburgh remain the leaders, while Cleveland has slipped into the negative.
Offensive Trends
Baltimore and Cincinnati lead with strong scoring trends. Cleveland and Pittsburgh lag behind, though Pittsburgh showed signs of improvement in 2024.
Power Ratings
Baltimore boasts a top-tier rating over the last five years. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh hover near playoff level. Cleveland’s recent drop pulls them below the competitive threshold.
Team-by-Team Data Analysis
Baltimore Ravens
Five-Year Offensive Trend: +2.27 → -0.36 → -0.67 → +6.03 → +7.84
Five-Year Defensive Trend: +6.23 → +0.18 → +2.88 → +6.53 → +2.46
2024 Rating: 103.50
Baltimore has emerged from a brief offensive lull in 2021–2022 to dominate the past two seasons. Their 2023–2024 stretch saw them post the best two-year scoring margin in the division. The defense remains a force, and the team is again positioned as a Super Bowl contender.
Data Outlook for 2025:
A well-rounded elite team. Projected record: 12–5
Cincinnati Bengals
Five-Year Offensive Trend: -5.21 → +2.73 → +5.19 → +0.71 → +4.69
Five-Year Defensive Trend: -1.93 → +0.77 → +2.25 → +0.07 → -3.83
2024 Rating: 100.26
Cincinnati continues to put up strong offensive numbers, especially when healthy. However, the defense took a step back in 2024, allowing over 3 points more than their opponents average. That drop prevents them from reaching Baltimore’s level, but they remain in playoff contention.
Data Outlook for 2025:
With defensive improvement, a playoff return is likely. Projected record: 9–8
Cleveland Browns
Five-Year Offensive Trend: +1.71 → -3.11 → +0.42 → +1.41 → -7.85
Five-Year Defensive Trend: -2.87 → +1.43 → -1.47 → -0.74 → -2.12
2024 Rating: 95.08
After three years of hovering around average, Cleveland’s 2024 collapse on both sides of the ball was severe. Offense dropped to the lowest in the division, and the defense allowed more than 2 points above expected. Their five-year average is trending downward.
Data Outlook for 2025:
Based on the current trend, Cleveland faces another sub-.500 season. Projected record: 4-13
Pittsburgh Steelers
Five-Year Offensive Trend: +1.45 → -2.66 → -3.24 → -3.72 → -1.39
Five-Year Defensive Trend: +2.97 → -0.44 → +1.74 → +3.08 → +2.86
2024 Rating: 100.91
Pittsburgh continues to rely on elite defensive play to stay competitive. The offense has improved slightly from its 2021–2023 lows, and the team’s overall rating puts them on the playoff bubble. Defense remains this team’s identity.
Data Outlook for 2025:
With any offensive improvement, Pittsburgh can challenge for a Wild Card. Projected record: 9–8
Projected AFC North Standings (2025)
| Team | Offense (Avg) | Defense (Avg) | Rating (2024) | 2025 Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | +3.02 | +3.65 | 103.50 | 12–5 (Division) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -1.91 | +2.04 | 100.91 | 9–8 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +1.62 | -0.54 | 100.26 | 9–8 |
| Cleveland Browns | -1.48 | -1.15 | 95.08 | 4–13 |
Conclusion
Baltimore has reasserted itself as the team to beat in the AFC North, with dominant scoring margins on both sides of the ball. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati remain playoff-caliber squads, while Cleveland appears to be sliding back into a rebuilding phase. If trends hold, 2025 will again see Baltimore on top, and a potential battle between the Bengals and Steelers for a Wild Card berth.