Jeff Self Sports Analytics

I know I’m a week late with my rankings. But I’ll have Week 14 and 15 out this week.

It’s getting tight at the top. Detroit squeaks by Green Bay. Kansas City squeaks by the Chargers. And Buffalo loses a shootout to the Rams. Detroit holds on to the #1 spot in my rankings. Kansas City is right behind them. Minnesota takes over the #3 spot and Buffalo falls to the #4 spot. Green Bay edges out Philadelphia for the #5 spot.

The conference championship games are over. Clemson edges SMU to win the ACC. This knocks Alabama out of the playoff as Clemson gets the automatic bid and SMU still remains. Georgia beats Texas for the second time in the season to claim the SEC Championship. Both teams will go into the playoffs. Arizona State continues their surprising season by winning the Big 12 Championship in their first year in the conference. And Oregon takes down Penn State to finish the regular season 13-0 and claim their first Big 10 championship.

Detroit stays on top in my rankings although they did seem to sleep walk through the second half of their Thanksgiving Day game against Chicago. Buffalo still looks like the most dominant team in the AFC. Kansas City found a way to win another close game. Will their luck run out at some point? And Philadelphia took down Baltimore rather easily. They are now a Super Bowl contender.

Top 5 offenses in my adjusted scoring rankings:

The FBS regular season is a wrap. FCS, D2 and D3 have started their playoffs. Oregon finishes the season as the only undefeated FBS school.

The ACC started the final weekend with a chance to put 3 teams in the playoff. Instead, they went 1-3 against the SEC. They’ll probably wind up with only a single team now.

Who would have thought Ohio State wouldn’t be playing for a Big 10 championship? Ryan Day keeps his job for now because of the playoff. Before the new playoff, he’d probably already be fired.

Last week I said Detroit, Buffalo and Kansas City were the consensus best teams. This week, I’m adding Philadelphia and Baltimore to the mix. I’m still hesitant on Philadelphia though. In their 7 game winning streak, the Rams might have been the best team they played.

Top 5 offenses in my adjusted scoring rankings:

Bottom 5 offenses:

And then there was one. Oregon is the last of the undefeated. Army falls to Notre Dame and Indiana can’t hang with Ohio State. A big shakeup in my rankings this week. The cannibalism of the SEC is in full force. My Hokies drop another one score game under Brent Pry. He’s 1-12 now in one score games.

FBS Top 16:

1. Ohio State
2. Oregon
3. Penn State
4. Texas
5. Indiana
6. Notre Dame
7. Georgia
8. SMU
9. Miami
10. Alabama
11. Ole Miss
12. Tennessee
13. South Carolina
14. BYU
15. Iowa State
16. Clemson

FCS Top 10:

1. Montana State
2. North Dakota State
3. South Dakota State
4. South Dakota
5. UC Davis
6. Idaho
7. Mercer
8. Rhode Island
9. UIW
10. Richmond
11. Villanova

D2 Top 10:

1. Harding
2. Kutztown
3. Ferris State
4. Valdosta State
5. Grand Valley State
6. Central Oklahoma
7. Ouachita Baptist
8. Pittsburg State
9. California (PA)
10. Fort Hays State

D3 Top 10:

1. Grove City
2. Carnegie Mellon
3. Washington & Jefferson
4. Westminster (PA)
5. CWRU
6. Salisbury
7. Cortland
8. Hardin-Simmons
9. North Central (IL)
10. Johns Hopkins

FBS Rankings
FCS Rankings
D2 Rankings
D3 Rankings

I think there are three teams at the top now. Detroit, Buffalo, and Kansas City. Buffalo made a strong case that they are the best team in the AFC with their win over Kansas City on Sunday, but they still trail Kansas City by a game. Detroit is, by far, the cream of the crop in the NFC.

Top 5 offenses in my adjusted scoring rankings:

Bottom 5 offenses:

Another undefeated team falls. Kansas takes down BYU. Oregon, Indiana and Army remain undefeated. Indiana faces Ohio State this week and Army takes on Notre Dame.

Here’s my top 12:

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Indiana
4. Penn State
5. Texas
6. Alabama
7. Georgia
8. Notre Dame
9. Ole Miss
10. SMU
11. South Carolina
12. Tennessee

The four highest ranked conference champions would be Oregon, Texas, SMU, and BYU if the season ended today. Boise State is currently the highest ranked group of 5 school.

Baltimore and Pittsburgh are on notice now. They still haven’t cracked my top 5 in power ratings because of their loss to Cleveland a few weeks back. Cleveland is now my lowest ranked team. Kansas City and Detroit remain the top 2 teams in both the adjusted scoring and the power ratings. The Chargers now have the top defense in adjusted_scoring. With any sort of offense, they’ll be a threat in the postseason.

Down goes Miami. We are left with 4 undefeated teams in FBS. I bet nobody had Army, BYU and Indiana in that list.

Since everyone else has posted their projected playoff teams, I figured I list my top 12 teams after Week 11:

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Indiana
4. Penn State
5. Alabama
6. BYU
7. Texas
8. Notre Dame
9. Ole Miss
10. Georgia
11. SMU
12. Tennessee

The Big 10 would have the top 4 seeds. But to get the Group of 5 team in, Tennessee would be replaced with Boise State. Sorry Miami, you’re out now. SMU is in.