Based on 1,000,000 simulations#
| Rank |
Team |
Sweet 16 % |
Elite 8 % |
Final 4 % |
Win % |
| 1 |
UCLA |
82.985% |
69.368% |
53.365% |
23.979% |
| 2 |
UConn |
80.918% |
64.350% |
46.657% |
17.314% |
| 3 |
Texas |
79.034% |
60.936% |
44.388% |
14.847% |
| 4 |
South Carolina |
80.618% |
60.413% |
42.624% |
13.606% |
| 5 |
LSU |
65.202% |
43.209% |
18.137% |
4.184% |
| 6 |
Michigan |
66.879% |
44.073% |
20.524% |
3.882% |
| 7 |
Iowa |
68.941% |
43.628% |
20.437% |
3.849% |
| 8 |
Vanderbilt |
66.222% |
40.543% |
18.175% |
3.619% |
| 9 |
Ohio St. |
64.909% |
35.051% |
14.515% |
2.440% |
| 10 |
TCU |
57.093% |
29.162% |
11.816% |
1.617% |
| 11 |
Oklahoma |
50.934% |
18.265% |
9.119% |
1.202% |
| 12 |
West Virginia |
49.919% |
17.781% |
9.092% |
1.169% |
| 13 |
Duke |
50.656% |
23.637% |
7.720% |
1.068% |
| 14 |
Louisville |
50.113% |
23.584% |
8.597% |
0.968% |
| 15 |
Minnesota |
50.217% |
13.528% |
6.263% |
0.781% |
| 16 |
Maryland |
44.371% |
13.926% |
6.385% |
0.750% |
| 17 |
Michigan St. |
38.226% |
12.112% |
5.484% |
0.546% |
| 18 |
North Carolina |
42.660% |
12.345% |
5.257% |
0.519% |
| 19 |
Kentucky |
34.215% |
10.447% |
4.678% |
0.421% |
| 20 |
Alabama |
31.856% |
13.476% |
4.386% |
0.383% |
| 21 |
Baylor |
28.097% |
11.446% |
3.183% |
0.330% |
| 22 |
Washington |
27.831% |
11.381% |
3.544% |
0.281% |
| 23 |
Ole Miss |
34.299% |
7.711% |
3.084% |
0.279% |
| 24 |
Notre Dame |
26.021% |
9.748% |
2.627% |
0.175% |
| 25 |
Texas Tech |
17.675% |
8.059% |
2.037% |
0.174% |
| 26 |
Southern California |
14.038% |
6.184% |
2.376% |
0.165% |
| 27 |
Georgia |
19.985% |
8.401% |
2.351% |
0.148% |
| 28 |
Illinois |
17.945% |
7.319% |
1.967% |
0.136% |
| 29 |
Oregon |
12.031% |
5.197% |
2.005% |
0.132% |
| 30 |
Princeton |
9.108% |
4.343% |
1.629% |
0.128% |
| 31 |
Villanova |
15.493% |
6.728% |
1.611% |
0.125% |
| 32 |
Tennessee |
16.611% |
7.277% |
1.976% |
0.117% |
| 33 |
Nebraska |
18.235% |
6.224% |
1.441% |
0.098% |
| 34 |
NC State |
15.049% |
6.341% |
1.648% |
0.091% |
| 35 |
Colorado |
14.251% |
5.333% |
1.301% |
0.073% |
| 36 |
Iowa St. |
9.168% |
3.846% |
1.294% |
0.072% |
| 37 |
Oklahoma St. |
7.138% |
3.135% |
1.072% |
0.070% |
| 38 |
Syracuse |
8.782% |
3.627% |
1.175% |
0.068% |
| 39 |
Rhode Island |
14.417% |
4.468% |
1.034% |
0.042% |
| 40 |
Virginia Tech |
7.596% |
2.806% |
0.895% |
0.040% |
| 41 |
South Dakota St. |
12.451% |
3.729% |
0.827% |
0.032% |
| 42 |
Virginia |
9.773% |
3.167% |
0.659% |
0.022% |
| 43 |
James Madison |
10.035% |
1.798% |
0.493% |
0.014% |
| 44 |
Clemson |
5.018% |
1.553% |
0.411% |
0.012% |
| 45 |
Gonzaga |
10.029% |
1.281% |
0.296% |
0.008% |
| 46 |
Murray St. |
8.419% |
1.225% |
0.278% |
0.006% |
| 47 |
Fairfield |
6.835% |
1.492% |
0.226% |
0.006% |
| 48 |
Colorado St. |
6.628% |
0.960% |
0.214% |
0.003% |
| 49 |
Miami (OH) |
5.830% |
0.799% |
0.172% |
0.003% |
| 50 |
Green Bay |
5.454% |
0.494% |
0.083% |
0.001% |
| 51 |
Idaho |
4.212% |
0.487% |
0.085% |
0.001% |
| 52 |
Vermont |
3.614% |
0.560% |
0.057% |
0.001% |
| 53 |
Western Ill. |
4.550% |
0.480% |
0.074% |
0.001% |
| 54 |
Col. of Charleston |
3.012% |
0.434% |
0.043% |
0.001% |
| 55 |
Missouri St. |
1.339% |
0.238% |
0.037% |
0.001% |
| 56 |
UC San Diego |
2.625% |
0.365% |
0.039% |
0.000% |
| 57 |
UTSA |
1.133% |
0.201% |
0.025% |
0.000% |
| 58 |
Jacksonville |
1.631% |
0.262% |
0.020% |
0.000% |
| 59 |
Howard |
2.235% |
0.291% |
0.024% |
0.000% |
| 60 |
High Point |
1.581% |
0.224% |
0.018% |
0.000% |
| 61 |
Holy Cross |
1.462% |
0.222% |
0.018% |
0.000% |
| 62 |
California Baptist |
0.769% |
0.139% |
0.018% |
0.000% |
| 63 |
FDU |
1.302% |
0.166% |
0.012% |
0.000% |
| 64 |
Southern U. |
0.327% |
0.026% |
0.002% |
0.000% |